Betting Market-Based Expectations and NFL Coach Retention and Dismissal

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Rodney J. Paul
Andrew P. Weinbach
Mark Wilson


Performance compared to expectations is important in evaluation of Chief Executive Officers, managers, and coaches. In many industries, expectation metrics are difficult to estimate or obtain. In professional sports, however, futures markets exist for season performance. In many sports, such as the NFL, there exists a wagering option on season win totals. A season win total is an over/under bet on the number of wins a team will have in a given season. We utilize this market to calculate actual versus expected performance and include this in a model of coach retention. The issue of treatment discrimination of minority coaches is explored.

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Author Biography

Rodney J. Paul, Professor of Sport Management, Director of Sport Analytics Program, Falk College of Sport and Human Dynamics, 300 MacNaughton Hall #321, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, United States

Professor - Department of Sport Management - Syracuse University PhD - Applied Economics - Clemson University 2000