### A MODEL FOR PREDICTING POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AMONG DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

#### Abstract

We present a theoretical model that enables to predict population distribution according to fertility and survival rates for each age group.

Using World Bank data, we estimated the relation between fertility rate of change and survival probabilities. Our findings show that fertility rate of change is reduced in countries with low or medium survival rate of infants. Conversely, it increased for those with a high survival rate of infants. If the survival rate of infants converges to 1, the fertility rate of change converges to zero, moving the country to steady size of population at age 1.

#### Keywords

#### Full Text:

PDF#### References

Becker, G., Philipson, T., and Soares, R. (2005). The Quantity and Quality of Life and the Evolution of World Inequality, American Economic Review, 95, 277–291.

Frejka, T. (1973). The Future of Population Growth: Alternative Paths to Equilibrium, John Wiley and Sons, New York .

Kannisto, V. (2000), Measuring the Compression of Mortality, Demographic Research, 3(article 6), 1–24.

Keyfitz, N. (1969), Age Distribution and the Stable Equivalent, Demography, 6, 261–269.

Keyfitz, N. (1971). On the Momentum of Population Growth, Demography, 8, 71–80.

Kim, Y. J., Schoen, R., & Sarma, P. S. (1991). Momentum and the Growth-Free Segment of a Population, Demography, 28, 159–173.

Kim, Y. J., & Schoen, R. (1997). Population Momentum Expresses Population Aging, Demography, 34, 421–427.

Li, N., and Tuljapurkar, S. (1999). Population Momentum for Gradual Demographic Transitions, Population Studies, 53, 255-262.

Li, N., & Tuljapurkar, S. (2000). The Solution of Time-Dependent Population Models, Mathematical Population Studies, 7, 311–329.

Omran, A.R. (1971). The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the Epidemiology of Population Change, Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 49, 509-538.

Peltzman, S. (2009). Mortality Inequality, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23, 175–90.

White, K. M. (2002). Longevity Advances in High-Income

Countries, 1955–1996. Population and Development Review, 28, 59–76.

Wilmoth, J. R. and S. Horiuchi. (1999). Rectangularization Revisited: Variability of Age at Death within Human Populations, Demography 36, 475-495.

Wilson, C. (2001). On the Scale of Global Demographic Convergence 1950-2000, Population and Development Review 27, 155-172.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v8i1.838

### Refbacks

- There are currently no refbacks.