Journal of Applied Operational Intelligence

Applied Operational Intelligence: Improving Practice Through Marginal Gains

Jordan Nunan, Ian Stanier — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The Journal of Applied Operational Intelligence aims to be a bridge between high-quality peer-reviewed academic research and the intelligence community. The journal’s focus will be on evidence-based research, where conclusions and recommendations aim to inform intelligence practices, policies, training, and future research. In this editorial to the very first volume of the journal, Editors-in-Chief discuss the necessity of interdisciplinary research, the vital role of intelligence, and how marginal gains (e.g., research that produces small yet meaningful improvements) are vital to the overall performance of intelligence.

Time Sensitive Interviews with Suspects, Witnesses, and Informants: Challenges and Opportunities

Lorraine Hope, Frances Surmon- Böhr, Laurence Alison, Emily Alison — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Obtaining information quickly is crucial in many law enforcement, security, and military operations, particularly in time-sensitive scenarios such as terrorist attacks, hostage situations, or dynamic operational contexts. This article examines the challenges inherent in the task of eliciting time-sensitive information, focusing on the difficulties faced by both interviewers and interviewees in high-pressure or time-limited situations. We review current legislative provisions for urgent interviews and identify a significant gap in empirical research on effective methodologies for information gathering in such scenarios. Here we argue for the adoption of rapport-based approaches, supported by empirical evidence, to improve the efficacy of time-sensitive elicitation. In particular, we examine the adaptability of the ORBIT model of communication and the recently developed rapport-based Time-Critical Questioning (TCQ) protocol for this context. Research to date indicates that rapport-based strategies, that emphasize clear and adaptive communication, foster focus and cooperation and increase the yield of actionable intelligence in time-sensitive situations. Finally, we outline a roadmap for future research and practice, encouraging collaborative efforts to develop evidence-based practice and training that address the unique challenges of time-sensitive interviews and enhance operational outcomes.

An Operational Analysis of County Lines and Serious Organised Crime Data From the Police National Database Using i2 Analyst’s Notebook

Stuart Jones, Seth Cooke — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The Police National Database (PND) is an invaluable National source of cross-border intelligence, yet its data has historically been underexploited for core tasks of network and criminal business analysis. This operational analysis by the National County Lines Coordination Centre explores the investigative scale, depth, results and efficiency benefits of importing and analysing PND data in i2 Analyst’s Notebook (ANB). PND exports of East Midlands, West Midlands and Police Scotland data were imported, merged and deconflicted. The resulting analysis produced several findings using existing data that, while adequately recorded, had not previously been understood in a Regional and National context. These results included identifying vulnerable children and adults, the criminal business model responsible for exploiting them, and the best opportunities for intervention and disruption – as well as identifying previously unknown links between Organised Crime Groups (OCG) and County Lines, improving Police understanding of their criminality and exploitation. The analysis highlights the investigative opportunities afforded when the value of existing intelligence is maximized using appropriate tools and tradecraft. The i2 tools and tradecraft for PND described herein have been recommended as best practice to all Analysts in the National County Lines Coordination Centre Network.

Assessing Deception Projection via OSINT: The Case of the Ukraine 2022 Counter-Offensive

William L. Mitchell — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Introduction: As the intelligence community observed the evolution of open-source intelligence (OSINT) and the development of the extensive data landscape, several new challenges to traditional approaches to warfighting emerged. One of these challenges was the increasing intensity of the illusory truth effect and its effects on operational timeline planning. How effective are these Emerging Disruptive Technologies (EDT)-driven open sources in projecting a battlespace deception, and what are the limitations and risks? To offer a substantive answer to this question, this study will use the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine as a case study specifically focusing on a projected deception using OSINT in support of the Ukrainian Kherson Offensive, which began on August 29, 2022, and the Kharkiv Offensive, which started in September 2022.
Methods: The analysis aimed to identify and quantify instances where the Ukrainian deception storyline was repeated across various media outlets and social media platforms. It used an OSINT scraper to aggregate and filter the data. Then, a simple quantitative analysis was used to cross-reference the intensity of the illusory truth effect with the Russian operational timeline for troop movements, and a conclusion was drawn.
Results: The number of ‘hits’ scrapped during a specific period was unexpectedly high, indicating a high level of engagement from both mobile and desktop devices. The data revealed a clear connection between increasing illusory truth intensity and Russian troop movements in the field. The study also pointed out the limitations of large-scale social media data in confidently establishing cause-and-effect relationships between influence and physical actions. It also demonstrated how the growing risk of the illusory truth effect, driven by OSINT and unrestricted military access to social media, could potentially compromise the compartmentalised operational command and control of military organisations through the personal devices of individuals involved in the command-and-control processes.

Conclusion: In an information environment enhanced by EDT, the illusory truth effect is a powerful tool for deceptive projection in the information domain. This effect is amplified if access is gained to compartmentalised operational decision-making processes within the target warfighting organisation. Consequently, from an operational security perspective, the intelligence community must address the threat of an illusory truth breach of command & control processes via OSINT collection in an EDT-enhanced information environment.

Critical Thinking for Intelligence Analysts & Police Officers: A Path to Improved Criminal Justice

Nadia Tuominen — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Assessing the Capacity to Build Rapport in Investigative Interviews with the Rapport-Based Inventory – Short Form (RBI-SF) Scale

Emily Alison, Frances Surmon-Böhr, Laurence Alison, Jay J. Duckworth — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Introduction: Investigative interviewer training has increasingly focused on enhancing interviewers’ ability to build rapport with subjects; however, trainers currently lack a consistent and efficient method to assess individuals’ competence in using rapport-based skills. To address this, we have developed a self-report scale – the Rapport Based Inventory (RBI), which is a scenario-based assessment intended to measure interviewers’ recognition of the correct use of rapport-based skills in interviewing contexts. The original scale consisted of four vignettes with 16 items requiring free text and multiple-choice responses in which core rapport concepts are tested. The current study aims to examine the scale’s psychometric properties, underlying factor structure and construct validity.
Methods: To test the instrument’s psychometric properties, the RBI was administered online to 225 participants (140 practitioners and 85 university students). To assess convergent (construct) validity, additional data was collected from a subsample of 60 practitioners taking part in interview training to examine whether RBI scores were associated with practitioners’ interview performance during mock interviews. Performance was coded using the rapport skills scales from the Observing Rapport Based Techniques (ORBIT) coding framework (Alison & Alison, 2012).
Results: The final short form version of the RBI scale (RBI-SF) contains eight items across four investigative interviewing vignettes, comprised of two factors – reflective listening (six items) and developing discrepancies (two items) with good internal reliability. One item relating to adaptability was also retained as a separate item that should be administered alongside the RBI due to its theoretical and statistical significance. Correlational analyses revealed that the scale demonstrated convergent validity with behavioural measures of rapport-based skill, with RBI scores positively correlated with interviewers’ effective use of rapport-based behaviours and negatively correlated with rapport-inconsistent behaviours during mock interviews.
Conclusions: We conclude that the newly developed instrument appears to be a promising tool to support the identification of interviewers’ accurate comprehension of rapport-building skills in the context of law enforcement and intelligence interviewing.

Why Does Sri Lanka Need Intelligence Reform?

Sinduja Umandi W. Jayaratne — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Sri Lanka's history is marked by a protracted separatist war, which lasted nearly three decades, with a persistent struggle against terrorism. The nation's intelligence community has been instrumental in preserving national security during the three decades of separatist war. However, in the current post-war context, Sri Lanka grapples with complex geopolitical landscapes due to India's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region and the resurgence of great power competition. Also, Sri Lanka is exposed to the growing influence of violent extremism, which was evident by the Easter Sunday Attacks on 21st April 2019. Within such a complex security situation in Sri Lanka, shifting from a reactive intelligence approach to adopting a proactive strategic intelligence framework is needed. Thus, this commentary focuses on Sri Lanka's need for intelligence reform, highlighting the shortcomings of the current intelligence system, the influence of political interference, the need for modernity, and the importance of preserving human rights and accountability.

Operational Intelligence and the Spanish Guardia Civil’s Carteia Plan: An Exploratory Thematic Analysis of Police Officer Perceptions and Experiences

Clara Bañares Martín, Rodrigo Gaona Prieto — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Introduction: This exploratory study examines the effectiveness of intelligence services in combating drug trafficking in southern Spain, with a focus on the integrated efforts of the Spanish Guardia Civil’s Carteia Plan and its Regional Analysis and Intelligence Center against Drug Trafficking (CRAIN). The purpose is to assess, through the police officers’ experience, how these initiatives enhance operational information collection and intelligence to counteract the pervasive threat of drug trafficking in the Campo de Gibraltar region.
Methods: Building on previous research, a qualitative approach was employed to conduct this paper, incorporating a survey and interviews with both law enforcement and intelligence personnel. The study also involved a comprehensive review of policy documents and operational reports from the Guardia Civil and CRAIN to evaluate their integrated intelligence model.
Results: The findings highlight that the integrated intelligence and operational strategies conducted by CRAIN in close collaboration with the Guardia Civil’s GAR special operation group significantly improve the efficacy of not only drug interdiction efforts, but also of any strategy against organized crime. The plan’s coordinated initiatives have led to a notable increase in drug seizures and arrests, demonstrating the effectiveness of enhanced intelligence gathering and inter-agency cooperation.
Conclusions: The research concludes that an integrated intelligence framework is essential for effectively combating organized crime. The implementation of the Carteia Plan and CRAIN’s functioning underscores the importance of comprehensive and adaptive approaches. Policy recommendations include fostering stronger inter-agency collaboration and promoting a transversal intelligence culture across different operational units, essential to address the dynamic and multifaceted nature of drug trafficking.

Fast-tracking Trust: Exploring the Relative Importance of Competence, Integrity, and Benevolence in Informant-Handler Interactions

Lina Hillner, Lorraine Hope, Feni Kontogianni, Stacey Conchie, Jordan Nunan — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Introduction: Demonstrating trustworthiness has been shown to increase trust and, in turn, information sharing in investigative interviews. However, the most effective ways to build trust in security contexts and the role of trust demonstrations in informant-handler relationships remain underexplored. This study tests the relative importance of competence, integrity, and benevolence demonstrations on initial trust development and willingness to cooperate in remote informant-handler encounters.
Methods: Using a within-subject design, participants received background information on an organised crime scenario and listened to three simulated phone call recordings, where handlers demonstrated each of the three factors of trustworthiness during attempts to recruit an informant. After each recording, participants rated the handler’s trustworthiness and their own willingness to trust and cooperate and provided written feedback on each call. Participants also expressed their preferred trust-building strategy used by handlers and rated their trust propensity.
Results: A repeated measures ANCOVA revealed no significant differences in willingness to trust based on the type of trustworthiness demonstration. However, trust propensity significantly impacted trust levels, so that more trusting individuals were more likely to trust the handler. Thematic analyses highlighted substantial individual differences in what participants liked and disliked about each approach.
Conclusions: Findings suggest that no specific demonstration of trustworthiness is more effective in fostering initial trust, indicating that handlers should tailor trust-building strategies to individuals instead of adhering to general guidelines. Future research should employ idiographic approaches to further understand how individuals perceive and react to trust-building strategies.

Thomson, Henry. Watching the Watchers: Communist Elites, The Secret Police and Social Order in Cold War Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2024

Angelica Krystel von Kumberg — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000