Are English Football Betting Markets Efficient in the Presence of an Exogenous Shock? Testing the Semi-Strong Form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis Given the Effect of the Covid-19 Induced Ghost Games on the English Premier League and the English Football League Championship Football Betting Markets

Abstract

Football betting markets can be used to test the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This paper adds to literature in this field by investigating the effect of an exogenous shock to the English football betting markets. We analyse whether market expectations were correctly priced during the Covid-19 induced ghost game period. We find that the loss of home advantage is not fully incorporated into the betting odds. Hence, we find evidence of a violation to the semi-strong form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Given our analysis we are able to demonstrate some simple betting strategies that bettors could have used to yield high profits. Moreover, we carry out robustness checks with five additional betting providers and produce concordant findings.