Impacts of the 2023 NCAA Football Rules Changes on Scoring and the Totals Market

Abstract

The National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA) introduced rule changes prior to the 2023–24 season. According to the Football Foundation Rules Committee, “…the most significant 2023  football  rule  changes  involve  adjustments to the timing and clock rules,”   with the purpose to shorten the length  of  the  game  and  to  “…moderately  reduce  the  number  of  plays  per  game.” We  examine  the  impact  of  these  changes  on  actual  and  expected  scoring  during  the  season.  The  rule  changes  led  to  lower  average  scoring,  which  was  not  fully  encompassed  at  the  start  of  the  season  in  the  financial  (betting)  market.  The  early  season  volatility  in  the  market  subsided  as  the  season  progressed  resulting  in  a  generally  efficient  market.