General Regression Neural Network Based Forecasting for Indian Exports of Beauty and Skin Care Products

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Published: Jun 3, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v19i3.2326
Keywords:
forecasting exports beauty and skincare GRNN MLP-ANN ARIMA

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Dr. Manas Tripathi
Associate Professor, Information Systems Area, XLRI - Xavier School of Management, Delhi-NCR Campus, India
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4720-3908
Dr. Madhu Mandal
Assistant Professor, Marketing Area, XLRI - Xavier School of Management, Delhi-NCR Campus, India
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7556-7149

Abstract

The export of beauty and skincare products from India to international markets is rapidly growing with the rise in the global demand for natural, herbal, and Ayurvedic solutions. However, the beauty and skincare sector is volatile and unpredictable due to changing consumer preferences, beauty trends, global competition, and trade policies. Accurate forecasting of Indian beauty and skincare exports is essential for practitioners to optimize business strategies and maintain India’s competitive edge in this growing market. The present study compares the prediction performance of GRNN, MLP-ANN, and ARIMA methods in forecasting export volumes. The study utilizes historical export data from 2007 to 2024 to analyze trends and patterns in India’s beauty and skincare exports. The findings demonstrate that the machine learning model, GRNN, outperforms MLP-ANN and ARIMA, in capturing complex, non-linear data, resulting in more accurate and reliable export forecasts. This research provides valuable insights for policymakers, exporters, and businesses by offering precise predictions that can facilitate strategic decision-making, optimize supply chains, and support market expansion.

Article Details

Issue
Vol. 19 No. 3 (2025)
Section
Articles
Author Biographies

Dr. Manas Tripathi, Associate Professor, Information Systems Area, XLRI - Xavier School of Management, Delhi-NCR Campus, India

Dr. Manas Tripathi works as an Associate Professor in the area of Information Systems at the XLRI - Xavier School of Management Delhi-NCR, India. Before joining XLRI, he worked as an Assistant Professor at the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Rohtak and Jindal Global Business School, Sonipat, Haryana. He also worked as a Software Engineer in a software product-based company. He is a Fellow in Management (Doctoral level program) of the Indian Institute of Management Lucknow in the Information Technology and Systems area. He has obtained a Bachelor of Technology (B.Tech.) degree in Information Technology from Harcourt Butler Technological Institute (HBTI) Kanpur. He has published articles in journals and conferences of international repute. His research interests include the business value of IT, business-focused predictive analytics, IT risk and IT governance, IT strategy, and ICT in emerging economies.

Dr. Madhu Mandal, Assistant Professor, Marketing Area, XLRI - Xavier School of Management, Delhi-NCR Campus, India

Dr. Madhu Mandal is an Assistant Professor in the Marketing area at XLRI Xavier School of Management Delhi-NCR, India. She has a Doctorate (FPM) from IIM Lucknow in the Marketing Area. She has completed her PGDM with Marketing specialization from ITM, Navi Mumbai, and a Bachelor in Statistics from Hindu College, Delhi University. She was awarded a Junior Research Fellowship through NET in Management by UGC in 2013. Her research interests include brand management, consumer behavior, children and adolescent psychology, and green technology.