The Relationship Between Pre-Game Betting Volume and TV Ratings in NCAA Football

Abstract

The legalization of sports betting across the United States has transformed the way fans engage with collegiate athletics. This paper examines the empirical relationship between pre-game betting volume and national television ratings for NCAA football games, offering new evidence on how wagering and media consumption interact. Using game-level data from the 2024 season, we estimate two fixed-effects regression models—one predicting Nielsen household ratings and the other predicting pre-game betting volume—while controlling for game competitiveness, scoring potential, kickoff time, and broadcast network. Betting data were obtained from Action Network, while television ratings were collected from Sports Media Watch. Results indicate a strong, positive, and statistically significant relationship between betting volume and viewership: games with higher pre-game wagering activity attract larger national audiences, even after controlling for team and network effects. The absolute value of the point spread negatively affects both betting and viewership, consistent with lower engagement for less competitive contests. Broadcast network also significantly shapes outcomes, with games aired on ABC, FOX, ESPN, and CBS associated with greater betting volume and higher ratings. These findings suggest that betting markets and media audiences are mutually reinforcing, reflecting the role of wagering as both a consumption complement and a signal of fan interest. The study contributes to the growing literature on the convergence of sports media and gambling markets and highlights practical implications for networks, sportsbooks, and regulators in the post-PASPA era.